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Holiday Spending Starts Now

A new Mediamark (MRI) Omnibus study finds that 62.3 million adult consumers will begin holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, while thirty-six percent of holiday shoppers say they begin shopping between Thanksgiving and December 15th, and 26% start their shopping between December 16th and 23rd.

Approximately 2% of holiday shoppers don't begin their holiday shopping until Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

There may still be toys on the shelves by then.  With the economy in a recession, holiday sales so far this year have been reported to be the weakest in 17 years.

TNS Retail Forward forecasts 1.5% growth, compared with 1.2% in 1991, for the holiday fourth quarter in the key holiday retail segments combined. Online sales across retail channels are forecast to grow 9% this holiday season compared with 19% in 2007. TNS forecasts online sales to reach $42.5 billion in the fourth quarter up $3.5 billion from the prior year.

According to the TNS study, key retail sector holiday sales performance looks like this:

TNS forecasts a 5.6% combined growth for mass retailers, with a shopper shift toward value formats and the impact of higher food prices. Supercenters and warehouse clubs will remain among the best retail performers while discount department stores will be the laggard.

Apparel and accessory retailers will take a toll on the softgoods sector this holiday season, expected to decline 1.3% in the aggregate in the holiday period compared with flat growth in 2007.

Homegoods channels expected to decline this holiday by 1.0%.  Furniture and home furnishings stores will experience the biggest deterioration, while Home improvement store sales are forecast to decline 1.0%. Consumer electronics stores are the exception in the channel with holiday sales growth forecast at 4.0%, partly because of sustained buying to prepare for the conversion to digital TV signals.

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